Archive for August, 2010

Avoid Premature Trading

Friday, August 20th, 2010

In uncertain markets, it can be easy for a trader to lose both focus and discipline. Here’s a recent e-mail I received from a currency trader.

“Dr. Doug: I made the critical mistake, this week, of turning my long-term bearish thesis about instability in Europe and the falling Euro into a short-term trade. I was so afraid to miss out on the big move that I started shorting the rally and got squeezed out near the top. Now the Euro’s falling out of bed and I’m sick to my stomach thinking about what could have been. Please help me get my head back in the game. Signed, Premature Trader.”

Well, here’s the deal: You need to slow down and accept that many times, the best trade is no trade. Most traders naturally fear that if they don’t participate right now, they’ll miss that big move and regret it. The irony is that by jumping in and going against your game plan, you could actually end up missing out on the same money making opportunity.

The solution is simple. Stop trying to be perfect. Great trading is not about perfection, it’s about probabilities. If you go to a restaurant and order a steak, you don’t need to eat the bone, gristle and fat to enjoy the steak. And you don’t need to sell the top or buy the bottom to make a killing in the market. Just look for the sweet spot and dig into that. If you leave some profits on the table, that’s ok. You’re still going to leave the table feeling confident, in control and with a full stomach.

Learn the lesson this time so you avoid this common trading mistake in the future.

Stocks and Commodities Magazine Interview with Dr. Doug

Saturday, August 14th, 2010

Here is a link to my interview in the August Issue of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.

Read it and learn why H + W + P = E will change the entire way you trade and think about risk.

Trade well, Dr. Doug

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

Saturday, August 14th, 2010

Choppy markets can cause investors to bleed out profits. To stay ahead in the trading game, you have to avoid buying into these five common false beliefs about Trading the Markets:

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Trade Well,
Dr. Doug

Shorting the Euro - Missing the Trade

Saturday, August 14th, 2010